The Weather Network – The Great Lakes are at record warmth. Here’s what that means for snow squalls

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The Weather Network – The Great Lakes are at record warmth. Here’s what that means for snow squalls

November 8, 2021 Sigma Mist 0

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Monday, November eighth 2021, 5:07 am – Chilly air and comparatively hotter lake waters are a primary setup for lake-effect snow squalls. This is what forecasters count on within the coming weeks.

Drivers in southwestern Ontario’s conventional snow belts have been plunged into an early burst of winter-like weather last week, courtesy of lake-effect snow squalls.

PHOTOS: Days of lake-effect snow bring wintry feel to Ontario

Such squalls aren’t unusual within the fall and early winter months, and so they depend on just a few components.

First: it helps if the lakes in query are nonetheless largely unfrozen. That issues as a result of the lakes lose their heat quicker than the land, so when chilly air strikes in, it encounters lake waters markedly hotter than the air.

So when chilly winds blow over the nonetheless comparatively heat lakes, the moisture precipitates as snow, and is blown inland by those self same winds. Relying on the course, the additional these winds should journey over the lake floor, the extra alternative it has for that moisture to precipitate, and the stronger the eventual squalls (a course of meteorologists name “fetch”).

Lake effect ingredients

As we talked about, the genesis of all that is still-warm, unfrozen lake water. And the Nice Lakes have this in abundance this yr. In reality, the lakes are at record-warm ranges.

Why is that this? This week’s chilly snap however, there hasn’t actually been an prolonged interval of chilly climate throughout Ontario, with lengthy stretches of comparatively delicate in a single day lows.

There’s additionally been above-average cloud cowl, which works to entice warmth within the area – all of which limits the cooling of lake waters which, keep in mind, already retain their warmth for longer than the land.

Great Lakes Record Warmth

So, the lakes are heat, and it will be a superb lengthy whereas earlier than they quiet down and freeze, in the event that they freeze in any respect. For individuals who do not choose their commutes with a healthy dose of snow, that bodes ailing for the approaching weeks.

Forecasters say the late November sample will mark the arrival of Arctic air, funnelled downward into Ontario by a constructing ridge of excessive stress throughout the west.

Chilly air over the hotter Nice Lakes makes for a primary lake-effect snow setup – however that does not essentially assure epic snow quantities for particular areas.

End of fall pattern

Whereas the sample and lake temperatures positively increase the potential for lake-effect snow, there are different components to think about, chief amongst them wind course.

To essentially max out that squall potential, we’d like a beneficial wind (out of the northwest, for example), blowing for a superb good distance throughout the lake to seize onto extra moisture (the “fetch” we talked about up above).

Second, for actually heavy native quantities, the ensuing bands of snow would want to lock in place, directing the snow over localized areas for extended durations of time. An excessive amount of meandering, and whereas extra individuals may get these flakes, total native quantities will likely be lessened. Areas removed from Lake Huron and Georgian Bay, just like the Better Toronto Space, are most unlikely to get any epic snow blasts from this setup.

One other upside: These heat lakes additionally serve a second goal: they will act as a moderating pressure on the identical Arctic air that will likely be boosting lake-effect snow danger, taking the sting off the chilliness. In reality, the temperature setup could even be such that will probably be lake-effect showers that manifest as we close to the tip of November.

Nonetheless, this complete setup is one thing to think about as Ontarians mull when to lastly get their winter tires on.

With recordsdata from meteorologist Jessie Uppal.

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