Photograph: The Canadian Press

With an extra wild card in every league, we may have anticipated the next this yr:

1. Groups on the prime of the standings can be much more safe of their postseason probabilities down the stretch.

2. Extra groups total would have the ability to keep in rivalry.

Thus far, nonetheless, the influence of baseball’s expanded postseason is marginal.

In response to the playoff probabilities tracked by Fangraphs.com, six groups — the Dodgers, Mets, Astros, Yankees, Braves and Cardinals — have at the least a 95% probability to make the postseason. At this level final yr — after every staff had performed at the least 126 video games — there have been really seven groups above the 95% mark. And that was with two fewer spots accessible.

Over the previous 5 full seasons — not counting the shortened 2020 marketing campaign — there have been a median of 5.2 groups with at the least a 95% probability of constructing the playoffs at this level within the season. So this yr hasn’t been a lot of a change, even with the postseason increasing to 12 groups.

It is a related story on the different finish of the spectrum. Proper now, 14 groups have postseason probabilities of beneath 5%. The common over the previous 5 seasons? 14.4.

In different phrases, even beneath the brand new playoff system, the variety of groups inside placing distance is not considerably completely different than common. Maybe that is as a result of including a 3rd wild card in every league hasn’t actually lowered the bar for making the postseason.

There was concern that groups at or close to .500 would have the ability to qualify, however at the least this yr, it would not seem like that is going to occur. The Toronto Blue Jays, presently on tempo for 87 wins, maintain the third wild card within the American League in the mean time. Within the Nationwide League, that spot belongs to the San Diego Padres, who’re on tempo for 88 victories.

One other means through which the brand new format was anticipated to vary the common season was by creating an attention-grabbing race for the highest two seeds in every league, since they obtain byes to the Division Sequence spherical. That is shaping as much as be an anticlimactic pursuit within the AL, the place the Astros and Yankees have separated themselves from everybody else.

Within the NL, nonetheless, the NL East champion is more likely to be the No. 2 seed, which means that race — the Mets lead the Braves by three video games — may very well be fairly suspenseful.

TALE OF TWO SEASONS

Josh Hader remains to be tied for the NL lead with 29 saves, however his season has fallen aside of late.

Hader didn’t enable a run by his first 19 appearances, and after a scoreless inning at Pittsburgh on July 3, he had a 1.05 ERA in 27 outings. Since then, he is allowed 25 runs in 13 innings, and his ERA for the season is as much as 6.52. The Padres, who acquired him in a latest commerce with Milwaukee, have given him a break from the nearer function.

TRIVIA TIME

If there had been a 3rd wild card in every league final yr, which groups would have certified?

LINE OF THE WEEK

Justin Verlander threw six no-hit innings and struck out 10 earlier than being lifted in Houston’s 4-2 victory over Minnesota on Tuesday night time. Verlander was pulled as a result of he’d thrown 91 pitches.

An honorable point out to Seattle’s George Kirby, who set a serious league document with 24 consecutive strikes to start Wednesday’s recreation in opposition to Washington. He didn’t throw a ball till the third inning, though the Nationals hit sufficient of these strikes to attain an early run on Kirby.

COMEBACK OF THE WEEK

Allure Metropolis’s staff has lived a charmed life at instances this yr. The Baltimore Orioles have performed their means into rivalry after dropping 110 video games in 2021. Their most dramatic victory could have come Thursday night time.

Down by a run with two outs within the ninth and no one on, rookie Kyle Stowers homered to tie the rating in opposition to the White Sox. It was his first profession dwelling run — and it was made doable by an error earlier in his at-bat when he hit a foul fly that wasn’t caught.

The Orioles won the game 4-3 in 11 innings.

TRIVIA ANSWER

The Blue Jays (91-71) and Reds (83-79).

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Comply with Noah Trister at https://twitter.com/noahtrister

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